In the course of watching the Southern Oregon real estate market recover from the housing crisis that was initially launched by the crash in sub-prime loans and the subsequent unprecedented surge in foreclosures, it becomes increasingly clear that the housing sector is in a “trickle up” recovery mode. It is mid-summer of 2009 and we are finally beginning to see a slow down in the inventory numbers for both short sales and foreclosures in the Southern Oregon real estate market and nationwide as well. The price range dominated by foreclosures and short sales is at the low end, and as the inventory is reduced we’ll begin to see an increasing number of homes listed for sale in the higher price ranges.

It is fairly safe to predict that as the lower priced homes are removed from inventory, the housing recovery will begin to “trickle up” because there are many home owners in the price range of $400,000 and above who would like to sell their home but see no point in listing with the market dominated by discounted property. At the first sign of a sustained recovery, the market for higher-end homes may well be flooded by owners anxious to sell. Unfortunately, the laws of supply and demand will dictate that as the inventory of higher-end homes grows, the price a buyer is willing to pay will decrease, and as we’ve already seen, when buyers have a lot of choice, prices drop.

So where’s the good news in the “trickle up” forecast of housing recovery for the Southern Oregon real estate market? The good news is that those homes currently listed and priced above $400,000 have a better chance of selling right now at their listed price than they will when the recovery begins to “trickle up” driving prices down.

So if you’re a higher-end seller thinking about making a move, the time to list your property for sale may well be right now.

Michael Masters

A Socially Conscious Real Estate Consultant