There it was in black and white, above-the-fold on the front page of the Grants Pass Daily Courier: Building Activity Picking Up. Did this article about an increase in the number of building permits issued in Josephine County signal the beginning of a return to work for builders or is it just an anomaly in the Southern Oregon real estate market? Or maybe it’s just a little bit of both.

April, 2009, marks the all-time low for the issuance of building permits in Josephine County. All total, April brought in less than $23,000 in permit fees. In response to the low number of permits issued, the county officials announced a reduction in permit fees to builders for the months of May and June. Presto! The number of permits issued promptly jumped in May to 132 permits that brought in $40,400. June showed a near-identical increase in permit revenue to $40,500, and so far July is following the trend even though permit fees have returned to previous levels. It would seem the Southern Oregon real estate market is encouraging builders to return to the job of new construction and remodeling.

Following in the county’s footsteps, the city of Grants Pass Continue reading Builders, Permits, and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

150 years ago the State of Oregon joined the United States of America and beginning in the early 1880’s, Grants Pass began to grow as a community. Today, the Josephine County Historical Society keeps track of Grants Pass history, both past and present.

When visitors arrive by car and approach Grants Pass from the north I-5 exit, they are greeted by a towering 18 foot tall statue of the Grants Pass mascot, the Caveman, seen pictured as part of this blog. Often those from out-of-town searching for Southern Oregon real estate wonder about the Caveman and his history.

In the early 1900’s, perhaps because of the influence of the nearby historic Oregon Caves in Cave Junction or perhaps because of Continue reading The Grants Pass Caveman and Southern Oregon Real Estate

In the course of watching the Southern Oregon real estate market recover from the housing crisis that was initially launched by the crash in sub-prime loans and the subsequent unprecedented surge in foreclosures, it becomes increasingly clear that the housing sector is in a “trickle up” recovery mode. It is mid-summer of 2009 and we are finally beginning to see a slow down in the inventory numbers for both short sales and foreclosures in the Southern Oregon real estate market and nationwide as well. The price range dominated by foreclosures and short sales is at the low end, and as the inventory is reduced we’ll begin to see an increasing number of homes listed for sale in the higher price ranges.

It is fairly safe to predict that as the lower priced homes are removed from inventory, the housing recovery will begin to “trickle up” because there are many home owners in the price range of $400,000 and above who would like to sell their home but see no point in listing with the market dominated by discounted property. At the first sign of a sustained recovery, the market for higher-end homes may well be flooded by owners anxious to sell. Unfortunately, the laws of supply and demand will dictate that as the inventory of higher-end homes grows, the price a buyer is willing to pay will decrease, and as we’ve already seen, when buyers have a lot of choice, prices drop.

So where’s the good news in the “trickle up” forecast of housing recovery for the Southern Oregon real estate market? The good news is that those homes currently listed and priced above $400,000 have a better chance of selling right now at their listed price than they will when the recovery begins to “trickle up” driving prices down.

So if you’re a higher-end seller thinking about making a move, the time to list your property for sale may well be right now.

Michael Masters

A Socially Conscious Real Estate Consultant

Using 20-20 hindsight to look back into the recent history of the Southern Oregon Real Estate market, we now see that starting around 2002, Southern Oregon real estate went on a remarkable 4 year run that ignored the internet crash and saw prices nearly triple. A home that sold for $60,000 in 2002 was up to $180,000 (and beyond) by 2005, securing lofty retirement goals through home equity more than just a dream. After a 5 year run like that, a real estate market correction shouldn’t have been surprising… but it was, catching not only home owners and investors off guard, but also the global financial community.

But ever optimistic I press on with the good news. Overall, the U.S. economy remains as one of the best global bets for investment, and the Southern Oregon real estate market continues to be one of the top retirement destinations with positive projections for home equity growth in the coming years. If you had been planning on a comfortable retirement before the financial meltdown upset your nest egg, Continue reading Home Equity, Retirement, and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

As we patiently await the passing of the Great Recession, our position is unique. Like wading in the mighty Rogue River that runs through the center of the Southern Oregon real estate market, we find ourselves floating in the middle of a roaring financial river, unsure if we’re in the middle of the waterway or how far it may be to the other side before we can pull ourselves out of this housing crisis. The Great Recession continues to be plagued by the great number of foreclosures currently on the market as well as the large amount of time and patience necessary to close either a short sale or a bank-owned property.

Looking back, we now realize that 2003 marked the beginning of an aggressive surge in Southern Oregon real estate prices driven by the ease of available credit. Today we cringe at the very mention of the term “adjustable rate mortgage,” but back in 2004, an ARM meant cheap money that could buy real estate escalating in price before our very eyes. A buyer could re-sell the property and roll the dice again, or take the equity out of the home and amass a collection of cars, trucks big-screens and computers, all purchased with money borrowed against home equity and supported by the indisputable appraisal.

We all know what happened. Continue reading The Great Recession and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

The stats are in. Sales activity for June, 2009, suggests that while its pulse rate may be low, the real estate market is still alive and its condition is stabilizing. Housing recovery for the national and Southern Oregon real estate market is bouncing off the bottom. For the last two months, consumer confidence rose, but in June consumer confidence took a slight dip.

Meanwhile, the number of homes listed in June on our local MLS has fallen to 1,142 from one year ago where the number of homes on the market was at 1,409. Additionally, Josephine County is working its way through its distressed property inventory as evidenced by the number of foreclosures on the market, down to 156 from a month ago where the number of distressed properties was at 165. Anyway you interpret the statistics, it seems the housing recovery for both the Southern Oregon real estate market and the national real estate market points to a reduction in value by 1/3 compared with the real estate market’s peak in the second quarter of 2006. The good news is that the values are unlikely to drop any further. Continue reading Housing Recovery and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

As someone who always views my glass as more than half full, it delights me to share some positive news with you about the Southern Oregon real estate market as well as the entire domestic housing sector. The good news is from an association known as the Business Roundtable which is made up of CEO’s from leading U.S. corporations. It seems the Business Roundtable has recently made recommendations to both the White House and Congress regarding the recovery of the struggling housing market. In a nutshell, here is what they recommend: Continue reading Business Roundtable and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

It seems that lately messages about the real estate market are mixed. Some messages are reporting signs of a rebound in some of the nation’s large metropolitan areas, while other messages are much more cautious, predicting a turnaround in metropolitan real estate to arrive somewhere around 2012. Meanwhile, the Southern Oregon real estate market is a far-cry away from the definition of a traditional metropolitan area, instead falling into the category of a rural area with big-city benefits.

According to the Adversity Index from MSNBC.com and Moody’s Economy.com thirty-three of the nation’s top 300 metropolitan areas are experiencing optimistic signs of a real estate turnaround. In Vallejo, California, housing starts are up 440 percent compared with a year ago. Longview, Texas is showing a 263 percent increase. Significant increases are also being reported in Ann Arbor, Michigan, Clarksville, Tennessee, and Lawrence, Kansas. While the Southern Oregon real estate market is not nearly as aggressive in its recovery as some of these aforementioned metropolitan areas, we too are beginning to experience an uptick in new housing starts.

And then there are the doomsayers. A featured article in Business Week for the week of June 29, 2009, Continue reading Metropolitan Real Estate Rebound and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

In my last post, I wrote about the need for hope and patience during the difficult economic times we face both nationwide and in the Southern Oregon real estate market. Whenever there is a need for patience, you can almost guarantee there is a hearty dose of impatience lurking nearby. And it is at times like this when the concept of “tough love” needs to be revisited.

Part of our challenge in hanging onto hope as we await improvements in the real estate markets is that we need to quell our anger and frustration at the events that created the difficult situation we find ourselves in. Often, the immediate inclination is to find someone or something to blame. It is much easier to Continue reading Hope, Tough Love, and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market

As we find ourselves moving through what is turning out to be the Great Recession, a stirring clarity is beginning to form about the financial recovery for both our local communities and the global community as well. The world, it seems, has averted a horrific global depression that would have seen global political destabilization. Instead, we have all come to experience more than just a tightening of the belt, but a recognition that the key to recovery for the Southern Oregon real estate market lies in a strong dose of patience and an even stronger belief in hope.

According to the dictionary, hope is Continue reading Hope, Patience, and the Southern Oregon Real Estate Market