The Southern Oregon real estate market here is definitely getting better, and that’s good news, but the truth is it couldn’t have gotten any worse. At the peak of our market in 2005, we were averaging about 135-140 home sales a month compared with the bottom of the market when we were selling around 55 to 65 homes per month. In today’s market, we are now averaging about 80 to 85 sales per month. The median price at the market’s peak in 2005 averaged about $260,000 per month while today the median price is now in the $170K range.

Fortunately, amid all of highs and lows in the Southern Oregon real estate market, prices have finally stabilized, and in a recent conversation with an Appraiser, I was informed that prices have been holding steady since the end of the second quarter of this year with some slight price improvement. Both the Appraiser and myself expect that statistical improvement to disappear as we enter our seasonal slow down. We usually see sales off by as much as 50% in the month of December but we expect an early pick up in the spring as buyers take advantage of the homebuyer’s tax credits that expires in March.

Now the bad news: In October and November the Southern Oregon real estate market only had an average of 7 sales per month in the Grants Pass MLS area that were over $300,000! That’s with an average inventory of 1100 homes on the market at any given time. While the inventory figure is down from the September, 2007, peak of over 1600 homes, we are still a long way off from being a seller’s market. The majority of the sales continue to be below $200,000 and the California market must improve in order to drive home sales over the prices that the average local wage can support. My prediction is that that’s coming in the Summer of 2010.

The hardest hit part of the Southern Oregon real estate market is land with prices down over 50% from their peaks. With no new development projects in the pipeline now for nearly two years, there is no fresh supply of lots coming on line. In other words: We are headed for a land shortage soon and prices will rebound quickly when building activity returns.

To sum up: we are through the worst of the market and we can expect slow and continual improvement starting in the Spring and continuing throughout the next few years. Barring, of course, any crazy geopolitical events or oil price shocks. Be patient because good days are ahead.

Michael Masters

A Socially Conscious Real Estate Consultant

     

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 29th, 2009 at 9:00 am and is filed under the category Grants Pass Real Estate, Green Real Estate, Michael Masters, Real Estate, Southern Oregon Real Estate. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.